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GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY MONTHLY:SPOTLIGHT ON GS GLOBAL LED OUTLOOK FOR 2013

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2012-12-20 08:05:55
           GS Clean Energy Monthly
       Our monthly GCEM product highlights keyconversations we are having with investors andtakes a deeper dive into a different issue eachmonth. This month, we discuss our global 2013LED outlook and implications across our coveragegroup following initiation of the China LED sector.
       This month’s focus: Global 2013 LED outlook
       This month, we focus on our global 2013 outlookfor the LED group, following the initiation of fiveChinese LED names to expand our global coveragegroup. Key themes driving our stock positioning:
      (1) prefer downstream exposure along the valuechain vs. mid/upstream, (2) focus on lighting playsgiven secular growth in the largest addressablemarket for LEDs, (3) structural overcapacity is aheadwind, especially for capacity additions, and (4)technology remains a key Tier-1 advantage. Withinour global coverage, top Buys include Cree in USand Yankon Lighting and Kingsun in China. TopSells include Veeco in US, LG Innotek and SeoulSemiconductor in Korea, and Foshan Lighting,Hongli, and HC Semitek in China.
       Top picks
       US – Universal Display (Buy), Solazyme (Buy),Cree (Buy), SunPower (Sell) and Veeco (Sell).
      Europe – Enel Green Power (Buy), Acciona (Sell)and Wacker Chemie (Sell).
      Asia –Yankon Lighting (Buy), Kingsun (Buy),Yingli Green Energy (Sell), Hongli (Sell), HCSemitek (Sell) and Xinjiang Goldwind (Sell).
       Performance
       The NEX is up 9.5% month-over-month vs. theS&P 500 up 4.3%. The five best-performing stockswere: Molycorp (+51%), MEMC (+48%), Yingli(+45%), First Solar (+33%) and Ulvac (+33%). Theworst performers in our coverage this monthwere: Kingsun (-15%), HC Semitek (-12%), Yankon(-12%) and Hongli (-7%).
       Valuation
       Our global solar coverage group trades at anaverage 2013E P/E of 25.8X, and our global LEDgroup trades at 21.6X vs. a bottom-up NTM P/E of12.9X for the S&P 500.
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